Islamic State’s success in hitting outside the Mideast has Washington, Europe rethinking options

Paris Attacks Prompt Geopolitical Shift in West

Thirty minutes of terror on the streets of Paris looks to become the catalyst for a broad shift in international politics with implications that could last for years.

Much of the focus in the West over the past year has been on a perceived growing threat from Russia. Terrorism was a real, but containable problem. Moscow’s new aggressive military posture in Ukraine and beyond, on the other hand, posed a more serious threat.

But with a series of well-coordinated strikes, Islamic State put the threat of terrorism back at the center of the international agenda.

And Russia, far from a nuclear-armed enemy, instantly presented itself as a partner—one with a plan for immediately tamping down the threat.

Moscow’s strategy—to back the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, at least temporarily, as the best way of tackling Islamic State—has been unpalatable to the U.S. and, up to now, France, which has been one of Mr. Assad’s fiercest international critics. That position could well be changing.

Friday’s atrocity sharply increased the geopolitical stakes over Syria, where nearly five years of war has sent hundreds of thousands of refugees into Europe. It is certain to intensify Western military and diplomatic efforts there.

Nonetheless, the appetite in Western capitals, especially in Washington, to put large numbers of boots on the ground in Syria remains small and colored by the experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Comparisons were drawn with the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on New York and Washington. But European powers don’t have the military reach of the U.S., making Washington’s reaction critical.

At a Group of 20 meeting Sunday, President Barack Obama vowed to “redouble” the U.S.-led military campaign against Islamic State as well as the diplomatic effort to reach a political resolution to the Syrian war.

White House officials note a recent increase in activity, including U.S. strikes against Islamic State’s leadership, an intensified air campaign and the deployment of special-operations forces in Syria, as a preview of the more muscular approach. Officials also confirmed Sunday that the U.S. delivered a second shipment of ammunition to a newly formed coalition of Arab and Kurdish forces battling Islamic State.

The U.S. also ramped up the intelligence it shares with France to help that country better strike Islamic State targets in Iraq and Syria.

In addition, Mr. Obama and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed after a meeting in Turkey on a broad process for resolving the Syria war, White House officials said, with a noticeable shift to a less-critical tone regarding Russia’s military effort there.

White House officials said, however, that Mr. Obama isn’t seeking a dramatic shift in U.S. strategy. He is still opposed to expanding U.S. involvement in ways he sees as potentially entangling the country in another Middle East war, such as a no-fly zone in Syria, which some U.S. allies, such as Turkey, have pressed for.

“We don’t believe that U.S. troops are the answer to the problem,” said Ben Rhodes, a deputy national-security adviser. “Frankly, it’s more sustainable and effective to have opposition forces on the ground in Syria and partners in Iraq who are able to take back and hold this territory in their own communities.”

The Paris killings confirmed the ability of Islamic State to reach out from its base in the badlands of Syria and Iraq to attack major powers. They followed recent terror attacks in Ankara and Beirut and the downing of a Russian airliner, all of which have been attributed to the well-funded terror group.

Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Richard Burr (R., N.C.) said on CBS television that he hopes that French President François Hollande invokes the NATO treaty to seek a new antiterrorist coalition, as the U.S. did following the 2001 attacks.

“Then maybe we’ll put together a coalition that can for once attack this horrific terrorist element before they have the ability to carry out another coordinated attack,” Mr. Burr said. He suggested more intelligence gathering and a larger U.S. special-operations force would be needed in Syria.

Paris is preparing to triple the number of its aircraft in the Middle East for operations against Islamic State militants, following what Mr. Hollande described as an act of war by Islamic State.

French officials said the aircraft carrier, the Charles de Gaulle carrying 24 aircraft, was already set to leave port this week, fortuitous timing that would enable them to act on the intelligence they were developing.

“For sure as we gather more intelligence we will be able to conduct more attacks,” said a French official.

Inside Europe, further controversy is likely over migration as well as the reimposition of systematic border checks at some places, which many people had come to view as a thing of the past.

It is also likely to create some tough choices for governments over how far to ignore the traditional European focus on human rights, and whether they need to respond with more electronic surveillance and other tactics, over powerful opposition that has emphasized individuals’ right to privacy.

“It will be very difficult for Western governments to fight this brand of terrorism and respect our political preferences and maintain…our narrative on values,” said Marc Pierini, a former European Union ambassador in the Mideast, now with the Carnegie Europe think tank.

One area where an uncomfortable compromise may be made is with Russia, with which relations have been frayed since its intervention in Ukraine. At the Group of 20 meeting in Turkey, Mr. Putin urged the West to join a common fight against international terrorism.

Moscow is apparently hoping that there will be a deal in which cooperation over Syria leads to an easing of Western sanctions over Ukraine. Up until now, European officials have resisted any such linkage.

“Russia is fighting those in Syria who blew up Paris and have declared war on Europe. It is time for the West to stop criticizing Moscow and create a joint coalition,” said Alexei Pushkov, head of the foreign relations committee in the Duma, Russia’s lower house of parliament.

However, any de facto coalition with Moscow would likely reinforce the Assad regime, a step that some experts warned could backfire by pushing Sunni Muslims who oppose him into a corner. Mr. Assad belongs to the Shiite-linked Alawite minority.

“The more you support Assad the more you are getting on the wrong side of the Sunnis, and give them only one option—supporting Daesh,” said François Heisbourg, a leading French security specialist, using another term for Islamic State.

By STEPHEN FIDLER And JULIAN E. BARNES
—Carol E. Lee in Antalya, Turkey and Thomas Grove in Moscow contributed to this article.

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Source: Dow Jones Products

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